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The Outlook for Energy: a view to 2030

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The outlook for energy: a view to 2030

To help prepare for the future energy marketplace, each year ExxonMobil develops The Outlook for Energy, a broad in-depth look at the long-term global trends for energy demand and supply, and their impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

The Outlook for Energy is the result of a rigorous ongoing assessment process that includes a detailed analysis of approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 fuel types. It is underpinned by economic and population projections as well as our expectations for energy-efficiency gains from the deployment of advanced technologies and adoption of better energy-management practices. Building on many decades of experience, ExxonMobil conducts this analysis utilizing in-house expertise and modeling tools as well as input from a wide variety of third-party organizations, such as the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The results of this comprehensive study provide a foundation for ExxonMobil's business planning.

ExxonMobil shares The Outlook for Energy publicly to help build understanding of the world's energy needs and challenges. This year's report focuses on energy demand to the year 2030. It examines key drivers of rising demand and the way this demand will be met by the various available energy sources, including fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energies, and it provides insight into the challenge of meeting growing energy needs while mitigating global CO2 emissions.

View the energy outlook presentation

 

 

Establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency

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Andris Piebalgs
Energy Commissioner
Establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency
Speech at the Founding Conference on the establishment of IRENA
Bonn, 26 January 2009

 

Honourable Ministers, your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am honoured to be invited to make an address at such an important conference. It comes at a crucial time as citizens across the world look to their political leaders and policy-makers for leadership to respond to severe economic and environmental challenges.

Today, here at this conference, a concrete step is being taken, and it is a step that I welcome wholeheartedly.

First, I would like to express my sincere appreciation and thanks to the organising State, Germany, for bringing together so many participants, and for the efforts made so far in establishing "IRENA".

My appreciation also extends to all participants for embracing this opportunity to build a new Agency; an Agency that creates a platform for sharing expertise and knowledge about the use of renewable energy sources that are clean, naturally replenished, and, if we pull together, more affordable for all.

Why are renewable energy sources so important?

At a time of global financial turmoil, it is my belief that world leaders share a responsibility to look to the future. A responsibility to mitigate potentially severe environmental damage and a responsibility to facilitate the provision of sustainable energy to people all over the world. Renewable energy sources and technologies offer such an opportunity.

Energy is one of our basic needs, and we must safeguard energy's long-term availability for all.

It has often been said that we need a new energy revolution to shift away from our fossil fuel dependency. Renewable energy is at the heart of this revolution.

The warning signs are there.

  • According to the latest IEA World Energy Outlook: "Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically and socially";
  • New Supplies of oil are becoming harder to obtain, making it uncertain for how long there will be sufficient oil to satisfy global demand.
  • And above all looms the spectre of climate change, about which the findings of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are there for all to see.

The EU is already preparing for a new energy future. In December 2008 the European Union reached a political agreement on the implementation of the "20-20-20" targets: 20% renewable energy, 20% greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and 20% improvement in energy efficiency – all to be achieved in 2020.

Under this package, each Member State of the European Union now has a legally binding obligation to reach a given share of renewable energy in its total energy mix by 2020. The targets for individual Member States vary according to their starting point and their comparative wealth. But all Member States, from the worst- to the best-performing today, have to do much more.

I must say how proud I am that the EU has agreed such ambitious targets. This is an enormous step forward in EU energy policy, and I would like, in passing, to give credit to our hosts, Germany, for their role as pioneers at national level and inspiration at Community level in bringing this about.

This clearly sets us on a path to be ambitious in a climate change context too, in particular at the important Climate Conference in Copenhagen at the end of this year.

But targets alone are not enough – as the new EU Renewable Energy Directive recognises. In recent years, we have been listening to renewable energy producers and we address the problems that the sector still faces today:

  • First, a stable policy regime requires proper and long-term planning. As a result we are asking EU Member States to develop and submit "Renewable Energy Action Plans" which spell out how they will reach their targets.
  • Second, we recognise that 'ONE-SIZE' does NOT fit all, and flexibility is needed for countries to choose how they achieve their target. Some countries prefer to use feed-in tariffs, and others prefer to use renewable obligation schemes, or tax incentives. What matters is what works! Our job as policy-makers is NOT to dictate which resources or technologies are to be used, but rather to create a favourable framework and a level playing-field for renewable energy. This, and a stable regulatory framework, will create the right conditions for renewable energy development.
  • Last but not least, the EU legislation aims to ensure that administrative rules concerning the authorisation or licensing of renewables are simplified, and that training and educational programmes are strengthened.

The Community's role in promoting renewable energy worldwide

With the experience it has gained in promoting renewable energy, the European Community sees itself as a strong partner for promoting renewables worldwide. We can offer other countries the chance to share lessons we have learnt, as, indeed, we can learn from the experience of others.

The new EU legislation fosters cooperation with neighbouring countries by encouraging imports both of electricity from renewable sources and of biomass. This is the first new important tool the EU has created for international collaboration on renewable energy. However, in respect of electricity, this tool only benefits those countries that have a physical electricity connection to the EU.

Consequently, the Commission is now focussing its attention on the building of a Mediterranean energy ring, which is essential if this region is to develop its vast solar- and wind-energy potential. Electricity interconnections are also needed within Central and South-East Europe, as well as a North Sea offshore grid. All these projects, which concern non-EU countries too, will take time to put in place, but once there, will enable the EU to access more renewable energy and neighbouring States to benefit from new sustainable energy infrastructure.

The European Commission also supports various assistance programmes on sustainable energy, such as the ACP-EU Energy Facility, the EU Energy Initiative, which has an ongoing dialogue with other international energy initiatives such as the Johannesburg Renewable Energy Coalition (JREC) and the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP). Which prompts the question: if the Community is already involved with international partners in the promotion of renewable energy, why do we need IRENA?

The role of IRENA

The main reason why we should all support the creation of IRENA is to have a dedicated renewable energy Agency with global reach. Today we have several different platforms for dialogue and policy exchange, but what we do NOT have is an adequately resourced Agency that can make a real difference.

Unfortunately, I am not in a position today to sign up on behalf of the European Community. While accession to IRENA as one of its founding members is my near-term objective, the European Union's Treaty requires that first the Commission must be given a mandate from the Council (i.e. by the EU's Member States).

I am, nevertheless, working to ensure that the Council considers a Commission request for a mandate very soon. My hope is to be able to represent the European Community, alongside the Member States themselves, in IRENA in the near future. I will be asking my European colleagues to support me in this endeavour so that together with all of you, we can participate from the start in building IRENA into the Agency we need.

Conclusions

To conclude, Honourable Ministers, your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, it only remains for me to wish IRENA every success.

And thank you very much for listening.

 

 

Energy Trends and Climate Change: A Road Ahead for Governments and Business

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BP Speaker: Iain Conn
Speech date: 25 November 2008
Venue: Brussels - Sofitel
Title: Chief Executive
Office: Refining and Marketing

 

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen.

It is good to be back in Brussels. The last time I spoke here in December 2006 I said we were approaching a critical moment in framing a long term energy policy for Europe.

At that time I was a member of the Commission's High Level Group on Energy, Competitiveness and the Environment, which in a modest way showed how business could work with government on a very complex set of issues. I am pleased that we were able to contribute to the development of the EU's Climate Change and Energy package, the framework for which was announced in January 2007 as part of the first Strategic Energy Review.

Well, now it is decision time. The Climate Change and Energy package is moving through the legislative process and the question is: do we go ahead and put in place the architecture of a long term energy policy for Europe - or do we hold back in the face of the difficulties of the task and the distractions of the current economic situation?  Read More

 

Delivering Energy for Sustainable Growth

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BP Speaker: Tony Hayward
Speech date: 25 November 2008
Venue: Tsinghua University, Beijing

Thank you for inviting me to speak. It is a great pleasure to be here.

I join you in what have been extraordinary times. When I was in Beijing last time, which was in Aug, I came for the Olympics. I spent three weeks with my family. The oil price was 150 dollars and people thought that the financial crisis was behind us. How little did they know. It’s clear that the oil price keeps moving in ways that none of us are able to predict. The financial crisis has spread from the banking sector into the world’s economies. No one can doubt that the world economy is now integrated. And, I suppose one of the biggest changes of all is the election of a new president in the United States. There are two themes that I’d like to address today. Firstly, oil price. I certainly don’t intend to predict what it will be in six months time or in six days time. And also that of climate change. But before I do that, I thought I should say a few words about the current economic situation which is the focus of so many peoples’ attention at the moment. The OECD countries in the developing world are experiencing the sharpest slowdown in economic growth for many decades. Growth has begun to slow in other countries as well. This is a consequence of both economic cycloid work and the fallout from the recent financial crisis.   Read More

 

Statement by the Minister of Industry on the Mackenzie Gas Project

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CALGARY, Alberta, December 14, 2007 — The proponents of the Mackenzie Gas Project (MGP) have developed a financial plan, which they submitted to me today. I intend to analyze and review their proposal as expeditiously as possible.

The MGP is a proposed $16.2-billion investment in Canada's North. The project would see construction of a 1220-kilometre pipeline and gas-gathering system, and development of three "anchor" gas fields in the Northwest Territories. It would connect otherwise stranded gas resources in Canada's northern frontier to markets in Alberta, the rest of Canada and North America.

As owner of the gas fields (on behalf of all Canadians), the Government of Canada has a responsibility to define the fiscal framework applicable to the project.

This government has maintained an open dialogue with the proponents since taking office. We have been clear about the basis upon which the project should proceed:

  • It must satisfy the public interest tests raised in the context of the environmental assessment and regulatory processes.
  • It must be a private sector investment, driven by commercial considerations.
  • The infrastructure components of the project must be designed and regulated to maximize the potential of northern gas resources.
  • It must result in tangible benefits for northerners and Canadians in general.
  • Participation of the Aboriginal Pipeline Group must remain an important aspect of the project.

The Government of Canada has no interest in owning any portion of the project or in subsidizing petroleum companies.

I am proud of the actions this government has taken to build momentum for the MGP. I hope that with hard work on both sides, this project can be made a reality.

Jim Prentice
Minister of Industry

Source

 

 

 

 
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